Are Metals Recovering Or Is It Just Dollar Weakness?

𝗟𝗠𝗘 𝗖𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝘀 𝘂𝗽 𝟳% 𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗹, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝘀, 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝟮.𝟱%.
So are metals really rallying...or is it just the USD falling?

Over the last month, global equities and risk assets have taken a pummeling thanks to ongoing tariff uncertainty. Yet base metals have held firm—some even rebounding:

Aluminum, Lead, Zinc: +3% to +4%
Nickel, Copper: +10%

But here’s the question:
Is it actual demand strength—or simply the USD weakening that's pushing prices higher? Let’s take LME Copper as an example:

April 4th
$8,751/mt
~€7,955
~£6,720

April 22nd
$9,360 → +7% in USD
~€8,150 → +2.5% in EUR
~£6,995 → +4% in GBP

When commodities are priced in USD, any devaluation of the dollar can push up USD prices, make the same commodity relatively cheaper in other currencies, and drive non-USD demand.

This is why commodity markets can’t be analyzed in a vacuum. You need to monitor: What the Fed is doing with rates, what US inflation is signaling, and of course, the constant tariff noise coming from policymakers.

While it's not always a perfect correlation, currency shifts can dramatically distort your read on market strength.